Climate Change: The New Driver of Mass Extinctions

Back in 2007, some 2,000 UN scientists produced a massive 4-volume report of an assessment of Earth’s climate. In this dossier they came up with a projection that as global temperature rises, species will start falling. They called this projection the “Highway to Extinction”.

This must have been lost from the daily parlance of governments, organizations and individuals because neither you nor I have ever seen a ‘layman friendly’ version of this grand assessment report. But that has not stopped the Earth’s climate from changing. So even as a small, but growing number of pundits take the matter of climate change and it’s effect on biodiversity to the public, species are still being lost.

Let’s go back before 2007. Way back to 2004 and the journal Nature said that most species will not survive climate change. The had that story on the cover of their January 2004 issue. The extract from this particular story says, in part:

New analyses suggest that 15–37% of a sample of 1,103 land plants and animals would eventually become extinct as a result of climate changes expected by 2050.

Given that climate change was responsible, in part, to the loss of the woolly mammoths and mastodons some 10,500 years ago, there is no doubt that climate change will claim a large number of species again. The difference is that the current climate change is being accelerated – and made more severe – by human activities. In short, despite the direct extinction from human activities such as hunting and habitat loss, we – the plague of the earth – have acquired a new way of killing off species indirectly: accelerating climate change.

It is clear that climate change will leave the planet in abject ecological poverty. But not many people are talking about this – and fewer still are doing anything about it. It is upon everyone of us to take action. To do those things that we have been told will reduce the severity of climate change – however remote the chance that these actions will actually work – and to take the matter to our leaders and public.

Remember, an ecologically poor planet is not good for humanity – if we are to be human-centric (as usual). Generally, an ecologically poor planet is bad for itself.

Finally, Sir Attenborough Speaks on Human Overpopulation

One of the most respected personalities on natural world and conservation TV, Sir David Attenborough, finally spoke about a subject most consider taboo: human overpopulation. Sir Attenborough said growth in human numbers was “frightening” according to a report appearing on BBC News on Monday 13 April 2009.

The good Sir, who said this when he became the patron of the Optimum Population Trust, a UK group that has been campaigning for the voluntary reduction of human population in Britain by not less than 0.25% a year since 1991, is likely to get a lot of flak for saying this. But then again, isn’t it true that human overpopulation is threatening not only all other life but human life itself?

The overcrowded Kibera Slums in Nairobi.

Some anti-overpopulation campaigners are much more candid than the veteran presenter, perhaps even offensive to the antagonists. Dan Gainor writing on the Business and Media Institutes site – back in 2007 – quoted Paul Watson, founder and president of the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society and famous for militant intervention to stop whalers, saying that mankind is “acting like a virus” and is harming Mother Earth.

It is easy to see humanity as a virus considering how they are spreading into lands once only occupied by wild plant and animal life. It is also easy to see that this ‘virus’ is rapidly (as opposed to slowly) killing the planet we, and millions of other species, call home. Think accelerated global warming, deforestation, drying up of inland water bodies, the list is endless.

The question of population growth is touchy for various reasons, the most peddled being that human population control is an infringement on human rights. John Finney discussing the population issue in his essay titled Population: The elephant in the room on BBC’s Green Room, acknowledges that discussing population is indeed a taboo among conservationists saying;

Some activists insist acting to influence population growth infringes on human rights; they maintain that it is best to leave the problem alone.

Now, the solution to human population is straight forward, but not ’simple’, neither can it be considered short-term in terms of implementation period. It will take a long time to reduce human population. But we have to start now.

Population reduction should be done in a humane way. Many experts have recommended some workable approaches. The ones I support are those that centre on the education of especially women in developing coutries about the availability of choice of family size.

Given the complex nature of family set-ups and cultures in these developing nations, the men need also be educated about the importance of small families. Tell them the truth, don’t tell them what you want them to hear. Because we should all be knowing by now that there is no other way out of the current ecological and resource crisis other than fewer people on Planet Earth.

John Finney, while reminding us that we are already beyond Earth’s carrying capacity – and we are headed for imminent human population collapse – adds;

Our chance to avert such an outcome depends on our ability to address our numbers before nature reduces them for us. There’s no other way out.

Are you ready to play your part in saving the planet?

Oh no! We’re all gonna die!

If your regular skeptics would read the WWF’s Living Planted Report, they would call it a doomsday conspiracy theory. They would say that the alarmist – the tree hugging scum who want us to live in the stone age – are, as usual, trying to scare us from accumulating wealth and living like space gods.

The 2008 Living Planet Report was announced today, 29 October 2008, via a press release contained here. It says, in more words than these, that by 2030, we’ll need two planets in order to continue living the way we do. Reason being that we are consuming more natural resources than the planet can produce. Demand has outstripped supply. We already need a third more of the planet to continue living.

Hectares worth of resources consumed by each country (linked from BBC)

The people (i am deliberately avoiding the use of the word “scientists” because the skeptic hates scientists) who came up with this proposition say that some nations already owe the planet a lot. Not surprisingly, the US, China and India are the biggest debtors of the planet.

In the US for instance, each person needs about two times more natural resources than the US has. In fact if the entire population of the earth was to adapt the US’s consumption pattern, we would need 4.5 planets to barely make it to the next day. Maybe the consumption in the US is not the problem. The problem could be that the rest of the world wants to live the American lifestyle instead of convincing the average American of the wisdom of living like a bushman.

Look around. African youth dress like their American counterparts and rap like them, imitate their hand signs and – painfully – curse like them. The most annoying thing is that the African youth are – in the most part – a cheap imitation of the Americans. But that is another story altogether.

In Kenya, we all dream of owning fuel guzzler Hummers – even our Prime Minister has one. Recently, one UN employee acquired the military specification Humvee and there was immediate outcry from the “ethical” online people. Again, the skeptics would have slammed the ethical people with something in the general direction of “a man cant just buy a Humvee and enjoy the attention, just because you think there is global warming?” or “If i can afford to buy, fuel, and service a Humvee, why not?” or simply “killjoys!”

The Humvee that is causing sensation in Nairobi (from Nick Wadhams Blog)

The BBC summarizes this tragedy by saying that three quarters of the human population now lives in countries where consumption levels are outstripping environmental renewal. The BBC calls these nations “ecological debtors” who are drawing and overdrawing from the natural coffers of agricultural land, forests, seas and resources of other countries to sustain them.

In a nutshell, with current consumption rates, each living person on earth needs an average 2.7 hectares of productive land to sustain his lifestyle. If we divide the total human population by the amount of land available it appears that only 2.1 hectares are available per person. This means that the earth has exceeded its human carrying capacity already.

To me, that is not the thing that the skeptics should worry about. They should instead consider that the situation is deteriorating faster than expected. In 2006, the WWF team had predicted that the two-planet syndrome would strike in 2050. Now they had to hack off a whole two decades from their prediction. That doesn’t say they are incorrect, it just says that we never learn.

So what are the solutions?

let me just quote the WWF press release:

The report suggests some key “sustainability wedges” which if combined could stabilize and reverse the worsening slide into ecological debt and enduring damage to global support systems. For the single most important challenge – climate change – the report shows that a range of efficiency, renewable and low emissions “wedges” could meet projected energy demands to 2050 with reductions in carbon emissions of 60 to 80 per cent.

If humanity has the will, it has the ways to live within the means of the planet, but we must recognize that the ecological credit crunch will require even bolder action than that now being mustered for the financial crisis

I must add that a solution also lies in how many children we choose to bring into this planet. Population growth is the problem really. There is simply too many of us such that the earth is groaning under our weight. We are eating ourselves out of existence. But maybe that is a good thing. With humans out of the way, the planet can return to sustainable existence. Problem is, humans wont go down alone; they’ll take the planet with them.